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SETSCI - Volume (2018)
ISAS 2018 - Ist International Symposium on Innovative Approaches in Scientific Studies, Kemer-Antalya, Turkey, Apr 11, 2018

The Determination of Seismogenic Features of Faults by Using Geophysical and Geodetic Imaging Method for Forecast Earthquakes: North Anatolian Fault Zone Example (ISAS 2018_93)
Şakir Şahin1*, Guoyan  Jiang 2
1Suleyman Demirel Üniversitesi, Mühendislik Fakültesi, Jeofizik Mühendisliği Bölümü  , Isparta, Turkey
2Actif Tectonik veVolkanoloji Laboratuarı, Jeoloji Enstitüsü, Çin Deprem Yönetimi Başkanlığı  , Pekin, China
* Corresponding author: sakirsahin@sdu.edu.tr
Published Date: 2018-06-23   |   Page (s): 98-99   |    57     6

ABSTRACT Size of damage caused by an earthquake depends on the amount of energy released by the current stress accumulation of the active faults and the change over time. Stress accumulation on a fault occurs in two types. These are 1) the long-term tectonic movements of plates and 2) unstable co-seismic and postseismic stress distributions from the hypocenter. Tectonic stress accumulation is directly related to the amount of inter-seismic shear on the fault. This is called back slip. In the last decades, a new deformation model has been developed by using geodetic observations, in which two and three dimensional (2-B and 3-B) slip rate are determined on the fault plane. In this model, rotation, strain and slip rates of fault blocks are determined by using a new three-dimensional viscoelastic deformation method in the form of triangular cells as displacement areas on the fault surface. This method, called the 3-D visco-elastic deformation model, has both numerical and analytical properties. Numerical models are constructed by the finite element method for seismogenic regions. In this study, as a new approach model forecast earthquakes, 3-D viscoelastic deformation model is discussed. The strain accumulation on the faults by using this method with geophysical and geodetic parameters and the application of the method in the western part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Marmara Region) is examined. The determination of the amount of rotation and deformation of the blocks on both sides of the   fault plane, the amount of postseismic viscoelastic relaxation and interseismic slip, and an application example on the sections of the NAFZ in the Marmara Region is described. On the NAFZ different fault segments, in the western part of time dependentslip rates are determined by using the data from Turkey's National Permanent GPS Stations Network (TUSAGA) Project and the GPS network of Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (ISKI). According to the obtained results, as accepted the Eurasian Plate is stable, it was determined that the Anatolian block moved to the westward in the south of the NAFZ as approximately 22 mm / year with a speed. At the same time, it is expected that the estimation of the earthquakes will forecast by estimating the seismic moment accumulation in each segment and monitoring it in real time.
 
KEYWORDS 3-D deformation model, GPS data, NAFZ, slip rate
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