Explainable Multi-Task Deep Learning for Blood Glucose Forecasting: A Lightweight, Interpretability Focused Approach
Sarmad Maqsood1*, Muhammad Abdullah Sarwar2, Egle Belousoviene3, Rytis Maskeliünas 4
1Department of Applied Informatics, Vytautas Magnus University , Kaunas, Lithuania
2Centre of Real Time Computer Systems, Faculty of Informatics, Kaunas University of Technology, Kaunas, Lithuania
3Department of Intensive Care, University of Health Sciences, Kaunas, Lithuania
4Department of Applied Informatics, Vytautas Magnus University , Kaunas, Lithuania
* Corresponding author: sarmad.maqsood@vdu.lt
Presented at the International Symposium on AI-Driven Engineering Systems (ISADES2025), Tokat, Turkiye, Jun 19, 2025
SETSCI Conference Proceedings, 2025, 22, Page (s): 1-6 , https://doi.org/10.36287/setsci.22.4.001
Published Date: 10 July 2025
Accurate and transparent blood glucose forecasting is crucial for effective diabetes management. This paper presents an interpretable deep learning (DL) framework based on multi-task learning (MTL) for forecasting glucose levels at multiple prediction horizons. In contrast to complex hybrid systems, we isolate the MTL core and integrate explainability methods such as Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and permutation-based feature importance (PFI). Our approach enables a clear understanding of model behavior while achieving strong predictive performance. Evaluated on the BrisT1D dataset, the model achieves an R^2 score of 0.956, RMSE of 0.045, and MAE of 0.033, while highlighting the critical influence of historical glucose readings. This focused study provides insights into how interpretable AI can support reliable decision-making in diabetes care.
Keywords - Blood glucose forecasting, multi-task learning, explainable AI, attention mechanism, diabetes prediction
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